China’s urban pet population will surpass children under 4 by the end of the year, according to reports from CNN and Goldman Sachs.
The reports came out on Thursday and show China’s ageing population and shrinking workforce due to the decades long one child policy.
A study by YuWa Population Research Institute shows China is one of the most expensive countries to raise a child, beating out Australia and France in child-rearing costs.
While China officially ended the one child policy in 2016 and further relaxed the restrictions in 2021 and allowed families to have up to three children, the challenge now is to increase birth rates after years of controlling them.
But many Chinese couples, like 36 year old Hansen and 35 year old Momo, are choosing to opt out of parenthood. Instead they are going for pet ownership, a growing trend among urbanites.
According to a Goldman Sachs report, by the end of the year urban pet population will surpass the number of children under 4. The demand for pet products, especially pet food, is the main driver of this shift.
By 2030, China’s cities will have almost twice as many pets as children under 4 nationwide. Add in the rural areas and the number will be even higher.
Goldman Sachs says this is because younger generations are moving away from the traditional values of marriage and having children to continue family lines.
Hansen, a couple in the report, said: “Different generations value differently.”
In line with this, China’s pet food market has grown rapidly. Sales grew 16% a year from 2017 to 2023 to $7 billion. By 2030 it’s expected to reach $12 billion and could hit $15 billion in the next 6 years, making it one of the fastest growing consumer industries in China.
This is a big change from 20 years ago when owning a pet was a luxury for the rich and mixed breed dogs were mainly kept as guard animals.
Meanwhile China’s birth rate is expected to decline 4.2% a year from 2022 to 2030 as the population of women 20-35 declines and the younger generation delays or avoids having children.
“We see more momentum in pet ownership as birth rates remain low and the younger generation adopts pets,” the Goldman Sachs report says.
Economic challenges like rising living costs and uncertainties are also deterring many Chinese couples from having children. As CNN noted, China is facing youth unemployment and a prolonged property challenges.
In response, the government has moved from enforcing strict population control measures like forced abortions and sterilisations to offering incentives to boost birth rates. These include cash and extended parental leave.
Despite these efforts, China’s population has been declining for 2 years and is now 1.409 billion with a record low birth rate of 6.39 per 1,000 people – the lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
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